Statement Analysis®

Is President Obama Confident He Could Have Won A Third Term?


The headlines read,

"President Obama 'Confident' He Could Have Won in 2016"
"Obama 'Confident' He Would Have Defeated Trump"

So, how confident is President Obama in winning a third term had he been allowed to run? David Axelrod interviewed the President for the podcast "The Axe Files." In describing how he believes the American people believe in his vision, the President told Axelrod,

"I'm confident that if I - if I had run again and articulated it, I think I could've mobilized a majority of the American people to rally behind it."

The President tells us he is confident. But what is he confident of? "I'm confident that if I - if I had run again and articulated it, I think I could've mobilized a majority of the American people to rally behind it." The President is not confident he could have won. He is confident he thinks he could have won. The word "think" tells us the President believes he would have won but he is uncertain. If a friend told you, "I think the movie starts at 1:15" you would probably check the start time. Why? Because your friend used the word "think" which means he is not committed to the idea the movie starts at 1:15. It turns out the President is not as confident at the press would have us believe. Saying, "I am confident I could have mobilized the majority of the American people" is a much better statement.

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